Factors of ensuring the sustainability of the regional economy

Abstract

The article examines regional economic sustainability as a multicomponent characteristic manifested in the coordinated dynamics of public finance, sectoral structure, the investment-and-innovation framework, and socio-market parameters. Based on comparable time series for 2019-2023, a diagnostic logic is proposed that distinguishes between level indicators and their rates of change, while accounting for the quality of growth sources and their sensitivity to external shocks and the cost of capital. The financial block is described through the evolution of the budget balance, the share of own-source revenues, and the debt burden. It is shown that the expansion of expenditures in 2020 was accompanied by a sharp increase in the debt-to-own-revenue ratio against the background of stagnating tax and non-tax revenues, whereas in 2021–2023 this ratio declined mainly due to faster growth of own-source revenues amid a moderate adjustment of debt, although a budget deficit persists in 2023. Structural analysis based on gross value added shows the dominance of services (about 49–50%) and the «trade – transport – catering» block (about 25-27%), with a small share of extraction (1%) and a moderate strengthening of manufacturing; the concentration index remains close to 0.349 (effective number of major sectors about 2.9). The investment ratio stays close to 21% of GRP after the 2020 downturn, alongside an increase in the share of private investment, which reduces direct budgetary risks but heightens the importance of interest-rate conditions and institutional quality. Innovation dynamics are characterized by a gradual increase in RD-to-GRP and growing patent activity. Social indicators demonstrate a faster recovery of employment compared with real incomes, a decline in poverty, and improved housing affordability by 2023, which is interpreted as strengthening social resilience amid continued sensitivity of incomes and consumption to price shocks.