Development and implementation of an innovation management system at industrial natural resource enterprises with consideration of environmental risks and sustainable development requirements

Abstract

The article examines the development and practical configuration of an innovation management system for industrial enterprises in the field of natural resource use, in which environmental risks and sustainable development requirements are incorporated into the decision-making framework on an equal basis with financial and production parameters. The relevance of the topic is justified by the persistent gap between declarations and practice: only 18.7% of large holdings integrate environmental management into their innovation strategies, while the growth of investments in green technologies (on average 4.2% per year) does not compensate for accumulated damage, which is transformed into a decline in return on assets through fiscal and penalty mechanisms. A structural imbalance in digital maturity is demonstrated: production automation at advanced enterprises reaches 65–70%, whereas the digitalization of environmental monitoring and risk forecasting remains at approximately 25.4%, which promotes point innovations without accounting for ecosystem effects and correlates with accident rates as treatment systems become obsolete. The methodological framework includes systems analysis and modeling of complex techno-economic systems, stochastic risk assessment based on Monte Carlo methods, comparative efficiency evaluation using DEA, life-cycle analysis of innovations, data mining and machine learning, as well as the formalization of expert assessments through fuzzy logic and process modeling of information flows. Sector-specific metrics combining technological novelty and environmental safety (the eco-innovation elasticity coefficient and the technological safety index) are presented, and a nonlinear relationship between environmental and cost effects and investments in digital management systems is identified: at investment levels exceeding 2% of revenue, pronounced synergy is achieved, and the statistical significance of the relationship confirms the role of digital transformation as a driver of decarbonization. Stress testing demonstrates the advantage of a balanced strategy with integrated risk management (reliability of 0.941, minimal drawdown, and accelerated recovery) compared to scenarios of accelerated implementation that ignore environmental factors. Sensitivity analysis of NPV shows that traditional projects are vulnerable to increases in environmental payments, whereas eco-protected solutions are more resilient to regulatory tightening but exhibit higher sensitivity to capital expenditures; an optimal investment range of 1.8–2.2% of turnover is identified, corresponding to the inflection point of the logistic effect curve, and the reduction of managerial entropy through digitalization is associated with a 15–20% decrease in the frequency of emergency events and the normalization of distributions of rare catastrophic risks.