Mental health in the era of economic crises: analysis of risks and support strategies

Abstract

The divergence between favourable macroeconomic dynamics and the growth of psychiatric morbidity constitutes a research collision that has not yet received a consistent explanation. In Russia, the primary incidence of mental disorders increased by 18% over 2020-2024, while the group of non-psychotic conditions – depressive, anxiety and stress-related – rose by 21,5%, even though the unemployment rate fell to 2,2% by 2025 and real incomes continued to grow. The aim is to establish how economic crises determine mental ill health and which configurations of supportive measures restrain this effect. Coefficient and structural-dynamic analysis of official statistics, factor decomposition of the morbidity increase and scenario modelling were applied. It is shown that the link between economic stress and mental health is mediated by the subjective perception of instability and is delayed in time, so that the peak of help-seeking is shifted relative to the acute phase of the crisis by approximately one and a half to two years. Four risk groups and the support strategies matched to them are distinguished, differing by target and time horizon. The delayed and mediated character of the response means that the effectiveness of support is determined by the stability of access to care throughout the post-crisis period rather than by the volume of one-off injections during the acute phase.