Results, challenges, and measures for energy cooperation between China and Russia in the context of Russia's Eastward policy

Abstract

The study is devoted to assessing the results, problems, and measures for the development of energy cooperation between Russia and China in the context of the Pivot to the East strategy. The relevance is due to the rapid redistribution of Russian energy flows and the formation of a new architecture of Eurasian markets. The purpose of the work is to identify the quantitative outcomes of reorientation, structural imbalances in the export basket and institutional constraints, as well as to justify directions for partnership harmonization. The novelty lies in a comprehensive IMRAD-analysis combining supply dynamics, price conditions and contractual regimes with the assessment of infrastructural and investment asymmetries affecting the sustainability of the bilateral model. Materials and methods include official statistics of Russia and China, IEA and OPEC reports, corporate data from major companies, texts of intergovernmental agreements and long-term contracts. Systemic and comparative analysis, time series and export basket structure analysis, content analysis of policy-strategic documents and discourse, as well as elements of SWOT analysis for systematizing strengths/weaknesses, opportunities, and threats were applied. A comparison of supply regimes to the Chinese and European markets was used to identify specifics of pricing and contractual obligations. The results demonstrate large-scale growth in physical supplies, primarily crude oil, which made it possible to quickly replace the European direction. At the same time, there is high volatility of value indicators, reflecting the dependence of revenues on market conditions and the bargaining power of the key buyer. Gas supplies via Power of Siberia are steadily increasing and exceeding planned regimes, but are not yet comparable to the lost European volumes. The export structure remains unbalanced: the dominance of oil in terms of value increases vulnerability to price shocks, while the shares of gas, LNG, and refined products are insufficient to hedge risks. The discussion emphasizes that the sustainability of cooperation requires qualitative shifts: increasing the gas component (including accelerating Power of Siberia 2), expanding LNG exports, developing joint projects in oil and gas chemistry to increase added value, and improving pricing and investment conditions. A reorientation of infrastructure is proposed from the dominance of raw material channels to integrated processing chains and diversification of contractual models to increase flexibility and profitability.