Potential of landslide and subsidence early warning systems based on deformation sensors for the protection of natural landscapes and linear oil and gas infrastructure

Abstract

The article examines the potential of automated early warning systems for landslides and subsidence based on deformation sensors to protect natural landscapes and the linear infrastructure of the oil and gas sector, with a focus on the quantitative assessment of technical, economic, and environmental efficiency in comparable operating scenarios. The aim of the study is to substantiate the choice of sensor technology and EWS architecture capable of reliably detecting early stages of geodeformations and providing sufficient lead time for preventive actions. Materials and methods include a systematic review of over 200 sources, finite element modeling of the coupled soil–pipeline–sensor network system under water saturation, loading, and dynamic influences, and experimental benchmark comparison of fiber-optic FBG, piezoresistive, and vibrating wire sensors in terms of resolution, drift, frequency, and noise immunity. At a test site (slope 15°, pipeline depth 2 m, 12-month modeling horizon), key EWS metrics were evaluated: alarm lead time relative to a 5000 µε threshold, accuracy of time-to-failure (Tf) prediction, and false alarm rate. The economic assessment was based on TCO and avoided damage, while the environmental effect was analyzed through modeled spill volumes and contamination areas. Results show the superiority of FBG sensors: 0.95 µε resolution, drift less than 1.1 µε/year, sampling frequency up to 1200 Hz, and complete electromagnetic resistance. The FBG-based system triggers an alarm at 21.35 µε/day with a 98.4-hour lead time, Tf accuracy of 14.32%, and a false alarm rate of 0.85% (versus 45.6 h/49.88%/7.24% for piezoresistive and 67.2 h/28.57%/3.15% for vibrating wire sensors). Despite higher CAPEX (32.55 million rubles versus 18.75 million), FBG ensures lower OPEX (1.85 million rubles/year) and reduces the 5-year accident probability to 1.15% (4.85% and 18.50% without EWS), leading to minimal expected losses (6.47 million rubles) and the highest 5-year NPV (63.24 million rubles). Environmentally, the FBG-based EWS enables preventive shutdowns without spills or reclamation, while alternatives result in 185.7–594.2 m³ of leakage and 1.35–4.48 ha of contamination. The discussion confirms that the FBG EWS provides maximum predictability and operational reliability with the best life-cycle performance. Standardization of equipment for landslide-prone areas and subsequent integration with InSAR, UAV, and AI models is recommended for multi-level geohazard management.