Assessment of the effectiveness of innovative projects in the field of natural resource management at industrial enterprises using multifactor models of environmental and economic outcomes

Abstract

The article addresses the problem of a reliable and comparable assessment of the effectiveness of innovative projects in the field of natural resource management at industrial enterprises under conditions of tightening environmental constraints and ambiguous returns from increasing environmental investments. The contradiction between rising capital expenditures for environmental modernization and a weak correlation with proportional reductions in anthropogenic pressure is examined, which necessitates abandoning single-criterion financial assessments in favor of integrative approaches that account for externalities, time lags, and the uncertainty of environmental processes. Based on systems analysis and economic and mathematical tools, the application of multifactor models is substantiated, combining correlation and regression relationships, the principal component method to identify key determinants of performance, elements of fuzzy logic to formalize qualitative factors, and the DEA approach to construct a frontier of relative efficiency. Significant intersectoral differentiation of results is demonstrated using three pilot solutions in metallurgy, chemistry, and energy: with comparable values of the profitability index and an acceptable dispersion of payback periods, a statistically significant range of specific capital intensity of emission reductions is observed, confirming the nonlinearity of the relationship between costs and environmental effects. The presented dynamics by pollutant types demonstrate high effectiveness of modern filtration technologies for particulate matter with substantially more modest progress for volatile organic compounds and greenhouse gases; data interpretation supports the thesis of a logarithmic nature of cost growth with deepening treatment and the presence of diminishing returns thresholds for different pollutants. An integral index of environmental and economic performance is introduced, enabling the ranking of scenarios and the identification of a compromise optimum between economic and environmental components: parity of weights ensures higher aggregated assessments, whereas accelerated environmentalization increases dispersion and risk instability. Sensitivity analysis shows the dominant vulnerability of net present value to capital cost overruns and a noticeable dependence on energy prices with a weak stimulating effect of environmental taxation. Overall, an understanding is formed of an S-shaped curve of the effectiveness of environmental investments, of the advantage of bundled transformation of technological chains over point measures, and of the applicability of the developed framework for improving forecast accuracy and supporting managerial decisions in industrial environmental modernization.