The role of universities and scientific and educational centers in the formation of regional innovation ecosystems based on the triple helix model and the assessment of knowledge multipliers under various institutional conditions

Abstract

The article analyzes the role of universities and scientific and educational centers in the formation of regional innovation ecosystems within the logic of the triple helix model “university–state–business” and provides a quantitative assessment of knowledge multipliers under various institutional conditions. The purpose of the study is to determine the extent to which the variability of the institutional environment and the nature of interactions among actors define the return on investments in university research in terms of the growth of gross regional product and structural shifts toward high-tech industries. The empirical basis consists of panel data for 85 regions for the period 2012–2023, statistics from Rosstat and sectoral agencies, databases of venture deals and corporate R&D financing; the methods applied include descriptive and correlation–regression analysis, the Cobb–Douglas production function expanded by indicators of human capital and institutional quality, VAR and cointegration models, the SEM approach, and cluster analysis that identified three stable clusters of regions by the level of maturity of their innovation ecosystems. It is shown that in the leading cluster, triple helix institutions ensure a high correlation between R&D expenditures and GRP dynamics, a significant share of extrabudgetary funding, and an integral knowledge multiplier exceeding 4.5, with indirect intersectoral effects dominating over direct ones. In the “catching-up” and “inertial” regions, an imitative model is observed: the growth of formal indicators (patents, R&D volume) is combined with low commercialization and a weak link to economic growth, which is associated with high transaction costs and institutional barriers at the stages of finding an industrial partner, attracting venture financing, and bringing a product to market. The estimated threshold values of the density of scientific capital (internal research expenditures of at least 0.85–0.9% of GRP and a private funding share from one-third to 40%) indicate that beyond these thresholds, the triple helix model transitions to a self-sustaining growth regime, whereas their failure leads to ecosystem disintegration and hysteresis. The conclusion emphasizes the need to move from cost-based financing to a policy oriented toward the magnitude of knowledge multipliers, supporting indirect effects through cluster development, reducing institutional barriers to technology transfer, and redefining the role of universities as integrators of regional value chains.