Impact of industrial automation systems cybersecurity on enterprises’ economic resilience and operational downtime costs under growing threat conditions

Abstract

The article focuses on the quantitative assessment of the impact of cybersecurity in industrial process control automation systems (ICS/SCADA) on enterprises’ economic resilience and the structure of operational downtime costs amid increasing frequency and severity of cyber threats. The aim of the study is to identify statistically substantiated relationships between the level of investment in OT-segment protection, the frequency and scale of incidents, and companies’ key financial indicators, including EBITDA, liquidity, and debt load. The empirical base consists of financial and technical data from 124 industrial enterprises in the energy, engineering, chemical, and metallurgical sectors for 2018–2023, more than 4,500 primary documents, and specialized cyber incident databases. Methods applied include panel regression, event study, direct costing and DCF, “what-if” scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation for loss distribution assessment. It is shown that major cyberattacks on ICS cause cumulative damage reaching up to 6% of annual EBITDA, lead to a decline in the current liquidity ratio by approximately 23%, ROA by approximately 27%, and interest coverage ratio by approximately 31%, extending the recovery period of financial metrics to 3–5 quarters. The average cost of one hour of downtime and the structure of direct and indirect losses vary significantly across industries, reaching maximum values in the energy and chemical sectors. Modeling the relationship between expected annual losses and the share of investments in cybersecurity (as a percentage of CAPEX) revealed a diminishing marginal utility effect and the presence of an optimal interval of 1–3%, at which the return on security investment (ROSI) is maximized, while further cost increases lead to overinvestment and reduced economic efficiency. Correlation analysis showed a strong negative relationship between the maturity of information security processes and the volatility of operating margin, confirming the thesis that cybersecurity is a key factor in economic resilience and justifying the shift from regulatory to risk-oriented budgeting, as well as the integration of cyber resilience metrics into management KPIs and scoring models for investors and creditors.